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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 12, 2014 5:00pm-5:31pm EST

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that's why it will be so much fun. >> "fast money" is coming up in a few seconds, melissa lee. >> i think i'll pass on that. >> you wouldn't naught in your purse? >> kevin o'leary and the members of tass vin are appalled at single serve wine, i think. >> have a good weekend! >> you, too. lots to talk about with breaking news we're dealing with. the market selloff accelerating in the final hour of trading. "mast money" starts right now. we are live from the nasdaq market site. i'm melissa lee. our traders are tim seymour, patriot and brian. the decline that doesn't seem to stop pressuring the broader market once again today. crude prices falling more than 3% after the international energy association cut its oil demand forecast. that move spooking investors with the major indices down more than 1% apiece. the dow down 4% this wiebe aeek. the credit markets getting ready for more volatility.
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the ten-year treasury yield closing at 2.1%. its second lowest of the year. and energy, the biggest component of the high-yield market, the high yield etf down more than 1% in today's session. this s this finally the dip we've come upon that you should not want to buy? pete najarian? >> i don't agree with that. i think this is a dip i do want to buy because it started with energy. energy continues to accelerate to the down side but i think that provides opportunities in other areas of the market that are getting sold off that really probably shouldn't, at least to this degree. one name off the top, how about costco? costco came out with incredible numbers. we look at this name all the time. it was $146, now it's $138. it's made a pullback but everything they've told us has been the opposite of what the stock reaction has been. i look for opportunities. i think that's one of them. >> it feels different today versus a few days ago even. >> it's definitely more panic today. that's for sure. it started -- when oil started
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the rollover it's felt more panic which to me i start to think, okay, maybe we're getting near at least a tradable low. what you have to be concerned about on this equity market, every other equity market in the world has sold off significantly. so the u.s. is kind of the last one standing. we know we've seen a lot of capital flow in here. now the question is, for the last five years the federal reserve has always come in on the dis and said hey we're going to be there. in their last fomc meeting they said they will not respond to market volatility. so what we have here is the market replacing riesk. repricing volatility and even if you get a bounce it won't be sustainable. >> the thing about where the s&p has not participated is if you think about s&p earnings with energy marked down, it's expensive. i don't think price is truth in oil. in other words, there's demand. there will be aggregate demand built year over year and maybe we're slower. maybe there's a supply issue but
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i don't think this is about that. i think this is about extreme positioning. i think we're into year end. i think people are blowing up. i mean hedge funds and investors. there's liquidations and a lot less liquidity in the markets where they were. but the s&p should not be trading where it is. we're down 60 points if you consider where we were yesterday. so from the high yesterday straight down through today, the s&p has moved 60 points like thatened i think it will continue to do that. >> here's the thing, right? you're talking about tradable bottoms. we know we have this fomc meeting on wednesday, the last one. they've floated the trial balloon about moving in a considerable time and some of the damage that might have been done if they had surprised with us that language on wednesday may be in the market right here. so no one has a vested interest in seeing this thing fall apart in the last few weeks of 2014. it's been a volatile year. that being said, the largest selloff that we have was october and it was 10%. prior to that there was about 5% so here we are down 4%, we have
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this event on wednesday, i think you probably -- if we continue to careen into that, if oil can find footing you'll probably rally out of it. >> really, into year end? >> yeah. listen, because no one has a vested interest in the thing falling azblart that's a huge call. you've got bulls sticking out. fantastic. >> you mentioned hedge funds blowing p. in terms of the ripple effects that we could be see, could we see hedge funds blowing up? and i assume commodity hedge funds exposed to energy equities without seeing impact on the equity market? >> you're helping me enunciate what it is i'm saying. like dan, i think world is good -- it could be in a better place. price is not truth. i don't think the world the awful. i think gdp will be 60, 70 basis points higher. people r revising up gdp growth for 2015 but i do think if you look at the commodities space, bhp out today saying it will never get to $100 again, we are
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seeing funds do this and i don't think you need to jump into a lot of this stuff in the next couple days even though i think it's oversold. >> so there could be a trade like dan says what you're saying is not mutually exclusive, basically. that's what it sounds like. >> i think what's happening here is the fed is in a place where their hands are more tied where they were. >> so what is shocking is that we were sitting here, all saying it feels different, more panicked, we're seeing more reaction across asset classes, high yield treasuries, commodities market, equity, currencies for sure but all of you are saying in the near term there could be a tradable -- tradeable is the key word -- bottom in equities. >> if oil stabilizes you will get a tradable rally 234 equities. this is about the fall in oil and we're getting somewhere close to at least to where there's some support and some fundamental reason why you might get a turn in oil here. >> this is only the third time we've been over 20 on the fix this year. the first time one day over, the next time, the ebola scare five days over it.
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here we are day one, we're back over 20. could this sustain over the next couple days? absolutely. could oil stay around these levels to the point miss of you guys are bringing up? yes, i think so. but sustained oil near these levels, not another sharp selloff, that pulls off, i we do get these short term moves in the s&p have been that have been and i continue to think they're tradable to buy and great opportunities. >> well, one group within the energy space that performed well today despite the selloff here is the tanker space. shipping company frontline seeing big games, navois, the thinking is for these tankers their costs are going down because oil is cheaper butter count these are more dependent on bringing oil in from elsewhere, like japan, they're buying now. >> and the news out today that i think was the spike for names like navios, if you look at what's happening going to china, 83 ships are sea borne waiting
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to dock into china which will be stockpiling all they can. this is china's strategy, it was their strategy in 2009, they want to build energy independence. so if you look at a lot of these tankers, and tanker rates are up 200% from lows in april, they're moving. there's an opportunity as investors to be looking at places where there are these dislocations and if you look at the shipping space, people assume that dry bulk is getting so destroyed therefore you don't want to touch it, that's iron ore, coal. but in this case it's a case where you do is v an opportunity, you should look at these. n nna was up 38%. i think there's good fundamentals here. these volatile names out here. >> that brings us to our chart of the day. we're looking at oil. brian, what are you looking at? >> i'm looking at a long-term chart of oil. this goes back to 1996. but what i wanted to point out is this is your 2004 breakout point. so that's $56. you have to be careful with these oil contracts because they
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are adjusted but at $56, just about where we are in wti, you have major support going back about ten years. the other place we could find support if we just draw a trick trend line here, if we break through this 56 level, now we're talking about oil down in the 0s. for me to get sbiel the 40s, that would mean we're having a severe economic contraction which i'm not in the camp yet. so as tim said about potential supply going to china, i think around the $56 range you'll be looking at support in oil. remember, this is a game of probabilities. technicals are always kind of suggested turning levels but at the very least you need to start looking out for that turn in oil. >> brian, does that make you think about some of those names that have been absolutely crushed in the oil space and look to those names as the best opportunities to trade? and i'm bringing up many of the names. across the board take your pim, right? >> i think for a tradable bottom, absolutely. the only issues is in a longer
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term basis, the one reason we see a bottom in oil, the drilling rigs, we had a 40% decline in term prs rigs. so as soon as you get a pop in oil, the rigs will be turned back on, we'll get the supply response again. for 5 trade, absolutely pete. >> but the bottom line is about 56 bucks a barrel is where you see a floor? >> absolutely. >> a shakeup for tesla's china operation and we have the impact on the stock next. plus much, much more in the broad-based selloff we saw today akoss the street. we have someone who says there is one thing that could stop this selloff. find out what it is next. ♪ you don't need to think about the energy that makes our lives possible. because we do. we're exxonmobil and powering the world responsibly is our job.
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we're for creating more innovation and competition. we're for net neutrality protection. now, here's some news you may find even more surprising. we're comcast. the only isp legally bound by full net neutrality rules. today marking the worst week for the dow since november of 2011, dropping 316 points today alone. so what exactly could turn this market around? let's bring in btig's dan greenhouse who joins us on the fast line. dan, what is it? >> i think you touched on it
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already. let me start by saying i apologize by not being there in person. at this point you kind of do need to see some stabilization in oil before the market can move higher but i say that with the knowledge that the energy sector accounts for 12% of s&p 500 earnings. it's 8% of the index and let's not forget the market has gone straight up during the entire market decline. at this point i think you do need to see some level of stabilization before people calm down. >> so can we glean from that statement the fact that energy is not a big part of the equity markets? that you need the stalization because of the ripple effects that you could see in other parts of the markets such as the high yield market where energy is the biggest component? >> let me say this. it's not just energy. i mean, materials have been acting terribly. the metals and mining industry has been acting terribly. some of the industrials you see united rental todays is one of the worst performing names, full disclosure, i own it. it's -- there have been a number of sectors, for the high-yield
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space, i will tell you this, i don't forecast high yield. it's obviously not my focus but when we talk about it in our notes for clients it get mrs. responses than anything else. i think at this point the high-yield energy space in which there are virtually no bids if no bids at all, that's particularly where the equity guys are getting nervous. they look over there and they are getting very, very concerned. >> dan, it's bk. i'm curious. you're looking around the world. what are the signals coming from the markets? we have ten-year yields close to 2%. oil down, most of the global equity markets down significantly. germany was down 2.5% today. what's the economic signal is that sending or is this just simply positioning and people panicking? >> i'm sort of split between you and tim to some degree. on the one hand, clearly there are deflationary pressures building around the world and the signals from break-even spreads, from global markets,
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not just in the commodities base but in the equity space, all scream something's not right and the ten year treasury market along those lines tells that story. but at the same time my narrative has been if there is a demand story here if this isn't purely shale production then where are the other companies? s where caterpillar and boeing and ingersoll-rand and companies that operate on a global scale. where are they in terms of them telling me something is not right? i haven't heard too much of that. to najarian's point, costco had a good report. their retail sales reports are good. there are bright spots to point here that says all is noter theable. >> dan, we'll leave it there. thanks for phoning. dan green hawse of btig. to back up that whole notion that maybe there is something to this in terms of lack of demand, we're seeing that backed up by the kmid tease market what bhp was saying about iron ore, that
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it would never hit $100 again. >> and it was $180. in the commodities someplace there is a supply response so you'll always see -- we've seen-the-in oil. if you have to look at assets, you have to look at places where things are oversold relative to the s&p and relative value 1 your friend here but i still think we're in a place where the dollar is going to return to an asset, that's a dangerous thing for commodities. i think gold goes lower, emerging markets continue to struggle down 15%. i don't think you need to run in there just yet. >> dan just said where are these big industrials? joy global just made a new five-year low today. caterpillar's $5 from the 52-week low. let me tell you something, a company like caterpillar have been moo maage issing earnings, there's no sales growth so to me ha 's the story in q-12015, all these multinationals in the face of this strong dollar and
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everything else going on, there won't be the revenue growth they're expecting and i think it will be a challenge. >> i'm dan brought up the high yield market. there's been a great deutsche bank report saying $60 is a tipping point. at that point that would force about of bs and cccs to restructure which would imply a default rate. that's scary stuff. >> it goes beyond the energy space, though. a lot of not always high yield but these bonds have been used to buy back stocks so exactly what dan was talking about. so when that game ends, when the financial engineering ends then you don't have to earnings per share growth. the markets cared about earnings per share growth, not revenue growth, and that's why every equity player like dan was saying, they are all looking at this high-yield space and it is a little scary because there aren't many bids out there. let's hit unusual activity outside of the oil. pete is looking at cyprus semiconductor. >> this company went through this merger and when you look at
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the stock it's run from $10 to $ $is.5. you look at the january 14 calls, 26,000 of these traded today in a big chunk, a couple chunks, 45 cents, by the end of the day over 35,000 traded. huge calls versus puts trading in this stock. i think stock is ready to move up and through that 14 level based upon the paper we're seeing today and, again, another example of not the entire markets getting sold off, certain areas of the market are still performing in a tough day. coming up next, much, much more on oil's collapse and the broad-based selloff across the street. are there any safety place throughout? more fast straight ahead.
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take a look at this. s&p 500 losers by a sector. so approximately half of the sectors closing in the red although we had a broad-based market selloff across the board. time for pops and drops big movers of the section costco. we talked about that. >> downgraded today. they had decent numbers. i don't think it was anything to get your pom-poms out here, peter, but the stock's down 6% since reporting that number. it was my final trade. >> same-store sales. >> this is not a full bear debate. >> i think you see 135 in the stock over the next week. >> drop for ibm down 4%, peter. >> oh, ibm. this is a stock that hasn't been broken for a very long period of time and it completely collapsed today. i think this is one of those
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names that right now the bears are really in control. i think you stay away from this name for quite a while. >> drop for apple down 2% tim. >> a day without apple means a day when probably nothing happened but the stock continues to get sold off. i think that's where you are. 108 is the 50, this is a place a lot of people are watching. i think the stock holds to these levels next week. ultimatedly next spot is 100. you stay long. i think the stocks is defenseive. >> big pop for organovo. 15%. >> if you haven't caught the interview, go to fastmone fastmoney.cnbc.com, at these levels, buyer gw obuyerganovo. >> tesla can you are a top trades tonight. the chief of tesla in china, veronica wu will leave the company for some days. wu has been with tesla for a
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year. this comes tavarez nation of the chief china operations. dan? >> this is a region that have to get right. they moved off of some areas, i think people think this is a huge leg of growth for them. the stock took in the pride. i would say more importantly the sock is down 30% from the all-time highs. it these hold this 200 level. it's doing a good job of it. news like this that is absorbed like this, i think it's relatively bullish. >> you thought the price action was okay. tesla seemed to be weakening even as the major ibd seindices parring their losses. >> if you have the right time horizon, i think it makes sense. >> we talked about this being so cheap implied volatility for such a long time. it's no longer cheap. the opportunities there -- >> the window 1 closed? >> at least for now. it will probably reopen but with this selloff, that implied volatility -- >> not even the upside? i would think all the bulls that
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were there have vacated and clearly people should be embarrassed with these level bus shouldn't that set up the call action? >> you would think. we're not seeing it, no doubt about that. we are not seeing it, and that implied volatility being as high as it is. now you're taking too big of a shop. next up, baidu, the chinese internet giant setting 600 million into car sharing service uber which raised a fresh $1.2 billion in capital. baidu confirming it's arrange add news conference for next week regarding this investment. >> i think they need each other. ub we are a valuation of $40 million, people are wondering where they're gel the expansion. they have a slice in china and i think baidu needs this, too. they have a fledgling mobile payment system like google. they're having a difficult trying to compete with ally be -- alibaba. the question is the regulatory backdrop for this whole story and i think uber is running into issues around the world and
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china will be a big deal. but for baidu, the company is interesting at 225, it's been holding these levels, very defensive while the rest of the china internet space has been getting hammered. >> what's interesting is alibaba has a stake in a chinese taxicab hailing app. >> what'sly mental that the bubble is not in public equities right now, it necessary the private market. when you throw a $40 billion valuation on uber, something like tim just said, they're getting shut down in places. >> so it's an uber bubble? >> seems like it. >> peak up -- uber? >> time for the final trade. him? >> i think dollar strength returns next week. i sell the australian dollar short, fxa, my firm is short. >> no pom-poms on the retail. i think it will be a tough quarter in the q-1 when we see guidance for the first half of the year. i'm a seller of xrt. >> brian? >> it went under the radar this
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week but microsoft started to accept bitcoin. it's going mainstream. buy bitcoin. >> that's a shocker. >> that's a great call. i think look at cyprus piper. >> the bitcoin ceo? >> cyprus is going higher. that paper is telling us it's going higher. >> that does it for us on "fast money." don't move, "options action" starts after this break with much more on today's selloff.
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live from the nasdaq market site, i'm melissa lee. we're continuing the coverage of this week's selloff. the dow having its worst week since 2011. the culprit, oil, which has just closed at yet another five and a half year low. how bad will the selloff get and what parts of the market are the most you will haver inable? we're joined here but our traders dan and mike. mike, kick it off. what did you make of the action? >> one of the things i think is most interesting is what you

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